Prediction and Analysis: President Obama and Health care

Healthcare will pass this year, for a number of different reasons. First, Dems can't afford to lose this one. If this president loses this one, like Pres Clinton lost his battle in '93, he and the Dems will lose a lot more then a bill. They will lose the control of the congress - which they might lose anyway because conservatives are geeked up now.

The discipline of the new Dems is that they learned from history. Their history of division and infighting is well known, but in case no one was watching they've passed everything that they wanted. Right? They've won the youth vote for three elections and the general populous for two. They've won the Latino vote - for a generation with the appointment of Sotomayor. Latinos are very, very loyal. By contrast, the opposition has blown up: governors quitting, having affairs, and being the leaders of the resistance.

Second, with the harsh polorized nature in the US any lean towards one side will tilt the balance of power with the help of Independents.

Third, power doesn't come often. The dems have had power since 2006, which is long enough, but not long enough to seal change. So the dems need to extend their leadership for a few more elections with wins and caluclated losses. The dmes will buck up to the pres and the dems will try to hole the repubs into blockers of change. People are still irratated with the 2000-2006 control structure. - CMP