How Everyone Missed Gold's Big 2013 Plunge - Businessweek: "Here’s a Bloomberg News headline that no one saw coming: “Gold Bulls Retrench as Price Drops Most in 32 Years.” One year ago, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had a median price target of $1,815 an ounce for the end of 2013. Actual year-end price: around $1,200.
That is one huge miss. Not only did gold futures fall in 2013, but they fell 29 percent, the first yearly decline since 2000 and the biggest since 1981. Why were the forecasts so wrong? Mostly because gold prices are highly sensitive to the outlook for growth and inflation and the inscrutable moods of speculators. Guess wrong on those factors and you can be way off."
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